A Probabilistic Modeling Method for Joint Output of Multi Energy Combined Generation System

Abstract Existing methods cannot accurately establish the joint output probabilistic model of Wind-PV-CSP multi-energy complementary generation system. Therefore, based on analysis correlation and complementarity among wind power, PV, CSP output, a method establishing probability system by using Copula theory Gaussian mixture is proposed. Considering operational history data CSP, function between PV adopted to CSP-PV combined output. Moreover, for PV-wind power set up mixed Subsequently, models outputs power-PV CSP-PV, power-PV-CSP was established. three evaluation metrics-the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), Euclid coefficient, are used judge quality model. The CSP-PV-wind in Jiuquan high proportion renewable energy base taken as examples; simulation results verify validity usability proposed method.